The bitcoin, the most famous cryptomenade, resurfaced, but it fails to clear the questions about its future. A little more than 10 years after its launch, its quotation goes up and down steadily, with a logic impossible to guess. Without going any further, in the last week, its price jumped more than 35% (from US $ 6,000 to US $ 8,200). But this Friday, at the close of this edition, in just a few hours it fell below US $ 7,200, which represents 10% of its value.
The high volatility is a characteristic feature of the more than 2,500 virtual currencies that exist today. On this, the interpretations of the analysts differ. For some, bitcoin begins to consolidate as a means of digital payment and as a reserve of value. Others, however, warn that it is a new speculative bubble, without any concrete utility in the real economy and that it is a risky and uncertain investment.
In December 2017, the Bitcoin stepped on the accelerator to set the record of US $ 19,783, for the following year its price collapsed 81%. The strong climb and the subsequent abrupt fall generated concern in almost all the world. On this last upload, Sebastian Serrano, CEO and co-founder of Ripio, one of the national platforms of purchase and sale of cryptocurrencies, is sincere: “Although we can not fully explain the reasons for this new rise, what we can do is look for some indications that help us understand why the market moves in a bullish direction and why this context is somewhat different from the previous rises “, the entrepreneur introduces.
In this sense, Serrano lists that there is greater interest from institutional investors (investment funds, banks and stock exchanges). And on the other hand, the uncertainty generated by the US trade war. and China, which caused “several devaluations of the yuan in a month”. In this context, “the bitcoin appears as a good alternative because it is not connected to any traditional market, be it stocks or currencies,” he says.
Gustavo Neffa, of Research for Traders, uses similar arguments. He says that the last bitcoin climb does not surprise him. “I think that in the previous ups and downs there was a lot of speculation in China, Korea and Japan.” At present, according to Neffa, “people have come to believe again and there is also a new set of actors (companies, institutions and retail chains) interested in operating with bitcoins in the financial markets and the real economy.”
Anyway, this financial analyst admits that “the trend in the short term nobody knows”. However, it predicts that “in the medium and long term, if recent advances are made concrete, it is possible that the quotation reaches a new record”.
The bitcon is an experiment created on October 31, 2008 by an anonymous “Satoshi Nakamoto”, who disseminated in a document the theoretical basis of that virtual currency and blockchain technology. Proclaimed as an alternative to traditional money, free of regulations of central banks and governments, its exit to the market generated more curiosity than concern. The price is determined by the “free play” of supply and demand and undergoes abrupt changes at every moment.
When it hit its historic peak and alarmed by the possible damage it could cause, big investors and renowned economists, including several Nobel, warned of its danger. Joseph Stiglitz, for example, said that bitcoin does not fulfill “any useful function” and stressed that “the real reason why people want an alternative currency is for money laundering or tax evasion”. Paul Krugman described the cryptocurrency as a typical financial bubble: “As long as everyone keeps buying (bitcoins) everything is fine, but the latter will lose all their money,” he said.
Much further was Robert Shiller, Nobel Prize winner and expert in economic bubbles. He described his operation as “natural Ponzi schemes,” as pyramid schemes are called, like Bernie Madoff, the New York financier discovered and arrested by the FBI at the end of 2008. Nouriel Roubini, the economist who anticipated the Lehman crisis Brothers, it was more direct.